What was october surprise

This is especially so during a war, where rising casualty rates can affect vote patterns and turnout rates. Other types of international crisis can also trigger a boost of public support for an incumbent as voters rally round the flag.

Carter certainly thought so during his doomed bid for re-election. The truth is that foreign policy represents more risk than reward on the campaign trail. The potential upside of using force overseas typically pales in comparison to the high political costs of failure, even for unpopular leaders who might otherwise be tempted to gamble for resurrection in the polls. No wonder, then, that evidence of incumbent presidents actually planning for a last-minute diversion is patchy at best. Irrespective of whether or not an incumbent really is plotting an October surprise, the speculation alone can be of great consequence.

Knowing that critics stand ready to impugn the motives behind any significant decision on the eve of an election, incumbents often bend over backwards to avoid such accusations. From troop commitments overseas to international agreements , the military and diplomatic value of critical decisions are all too often sacrificed at the altar of electoral expediency.

Note: October surprise usually relates to U. See more words from the same year. October surprise. Accessed 12 Nov. Subscribe to America's largest dictionary and get thousands more definitions and advanced search—ad free! Log in Sign Up. October surprise noun. Save Word. Definition of October surprise. US politics. And even though recent polls and surveys show Sanders supporters largely rallying to Mrs.

First, and most importantly, there was the unprecedented intervention by then FBI director Jim Comey. Some pollsters say the letter caused a swing against her as large as 4 points. She effectively lost the election by less than , votes spread across three states, robbing her of victory in the electoral college even as she won the national popular vote by nearly 3 million.

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